| Expected profit | |
|---|---|
| Fair odds for your probability | |
| Break-even probability at these odds |
Enter the odds and your probability to see the edge.
Expected value (EV) calculator
Find positive EV and value bets. Enter a bet's decimal odds and your estimated chance it wins. The calculator returns your edge, the fair price, and the probability the odds are pricing in.
We find these for you, free
The calculator is the maths. In the Discord we run it across the world's bookmakers all day and post the bets that beat the fair line. Join free.
What is a value bet?
A value bet (a positive EV or +EV bet) is priced more generously than the true odds of it winning. If you believe a selection has a 52% chance but the book pays a price that only needs 48%, the extra is your edge. Bet enough genuine +EV spots and the maths works in your favour, even though individual bets still lose.
Read the result honestly
The edge here is only as trustworthy as the probability you enter. That is the key difference from a no-vig price, which is drawn from a market rather than guessed. A single bookmaker's line, stripped of its margin, is still that one book's opinion. A dependable fair probability comes from combining many books, which is the work KeenOdds does before posting a bet.
Frequently asked questions
What is a positive EV (+EV) bet?
A positive expected value bet, a +EV or value bet, is one where the price is higher than your estimated chance of winning justifies. Over many such bets, that edge is expected to turn a profit even though any single bet can lose.
How is expected value calculated?
Expected value is (your win probability times decimal odds minus 1) times stake. If your probability times the odds is above 1, the bet is +EV. Below 1 it is -EV. The calculator shows the edge as a percentage and in stake units.
Where does the win probability come from?
From you. This tool takes your estimate, and an EV number is only as good as that probability, which is the hard part. A trustworthy fair probability needs many bookmakers, not one price, and that is what KeenOdds does.
Is EV betting the same as value betting?
Yes. Value betting, +EV betting and expected-value betting all name the same idea. You stake only when the price beats the fair probability.
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Convert between decimal, American and fractional odds and implied probability.